Causes and lessons of the U.S. financial crisis

 U.S. financial crisis: causes and lessons
Source: 21st Century Business Herald
depth of the crisis: it reduces the real strength of the United States?
cash to get rid of financial difficulties, these crises also hit the United States mean? Some analysts believe that Lehman Brothers bankruptcy will lead to the United States broke a series of continuous and focused on significant financial event: the U.S. Treasury Department hosted the largest insurance company American International Group (AIG) is to be the next crisis point. can be said that the U.S. financial crisis has now reached a climax, the financial crisis will also swept a number of less well-known medium-sized investment bank, in addition, it is estimated there is a two large investment banks and commercial banks will be the impact of the crisis. In short, I think the U.S. financial crisis has not the final end, the basic U.S. economic recession is a foregone conclusion.
from the perspective of the development of existing events, if there is money outflows from the U.S. market, the consequences will be even more serious. This will allow the real estate crisis-induced financial crisis, through the U.S. financial system, firewall, through the spread of commercial banks to the real economy. Once the spread formation, will make the current debate still in the investment banking crisis spread to the virtual to the real economy, causing the entire United States, a substantial hit, the U.S. economy, society will experience the first time since the founding of the real Great Depression, the United States national power will thus be real and completely undermine the .
Wang: the beginning from last July, because of the subprime loans can not repay, leading to impairment of bonds, called asset writedowns. Now more and more losses, but the company has drilled many loopholes in the accounting review, and No write-down of assets accordingly, but to the prevailing market price is also recorded in the current account, and will not report this loss is hidden. the current global financial institutions have reported that the loss is 510 billion U.S. dollars, but this does not hide certainly much greater than the loss reported this number.
such as Lehman Brothers, we see the total amount of 639 billion U.S. dollars of assets, liabilities totaled 613 billion U.S. dollars, doing little more than 200 million of its net assets. However, We do not know that 639 billion U.S. dollars of asset value is when calibrated? is still worth that much money? If it is in accordance with the peak in June last year, the price of calibration, now do not know to what extent has shrunk. Earlier this year, Lehman's stock, or $ 60, but it declared bankruptcy in the first day, the market value fell 21 cents, if this is a reflection of its assets shrink, a loss that Lehman Brothers may be hundreds of billions of dollars.
these risks to be covered now and, so said the subprime crisis is a characteristic of most non-transparent, and who do not know how many bad assets of financial institutions took their real value is. So the day Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, due to the extreme market panic, the U.S. federal funds rate soared to about 8% (benchmark interest rate is 2%), because we are afraid to loan, you borrow money with me, I told you to 8% interest rate, I can not trust you, because the risk is too great.
depreciation of the dollar has caused the crisis. the future depreciation of the dollar will continue, but the specific space is still difficult to estimate depreciation. to take over the expansion, but also with its unilateralist foreign policy has a lot. In particular, if McCain's elected president, he will continue to use similar means and Bush to solve international problems, and that the U.S. budget deficit will only continue to rapid growth, the dollar was further depreciation of the trend in the next few years, it may be difficult to fundamentally reversed.
Trend How?
Wang: The U.S. financial structure is an inverted pyramid, its bottom is the actual consumption and material industry and related interfaces, such as industrial and commercial business loans, mortgages, consumer loans, education loans, etc., as constructed based on the building of financial derivative products. U.S. financial institutions issued loans in kind the size of less than 20 trillion, including mortgages, business loans and other consumer loans, but the size of derivative financial products has reached 400 million billion U.S. dollars. Now the bottom collapsed, the building will follow the above down to the huge collapse. because they are the subject of derivative products and in-kind loans and related bonds, loans and bonds they are not now, and derivative financial products in the building have collapsed.
reason why the outbreak is now rather than in previous years, because the concentration of financial institutions since 2005, issued a large number of subprime loans, these financial assets from July 2007 began to enter the repayment period, repayment of the third quarter of this year into the peak period, due to inability to pay the bonds, the crisis broke out. I expect, I am afraid that this peak to last until 2009.
Wang Zili: The United States is the main reason for the crisis Credit creation by creating a demand beyond their capacity to pay, or consumption of the future. This is all to maintain the essence of power and force is based on a small part of the vast majority of people occupied the wealth and resources, which kinds of mechanism in the international community is based on credit and strength. However, these two things are dynamic, sometimes very fragile. strength is the basis of credit, credit is a powerful tool to achieve, with the strength of the changes, credit is also In the event of changes in the same direction.
emerging market countries, especially with the rise of China, disturbed the original balance of world power, which will make the world the vulnerability of existing credit system for revaluation, re- assessment will inevitably bring about the economic crisis at least as economic turmoil. boom-bust, which is the law of social development, Spain, Portugal and the UK decline the rise and decline of British and American hegemony, just a few.
the U.S. economy suffered challenge?
room of the situation, which for a market economy, it is unimaginable. Moreover, these companies need to use to save taxpayer money, they would not agree. Therefore, it is impossible to save things continue to do so.
Now the main way the Fed lending window is open, and more bad debt, the stock can get to do mortgage lending cash. This is more indirect, less affected practice, so also was the Federal Reserve as a more favorable measures.
the crisis in U.S. financial institutions, mainly in his hand a lot of them have greatly diminished the value of subprime mortgage bonds, not change now. The value of financial assets ultimately depends on its liquidity, market acceptance if it price, it is worth; If the market does not recognize its value, it is not valuable. The Fed is not authorized to accept that the market value of securities to financial institutions to continuous blood transfusion, one possible consequence of this is awash with liquidity. The Fed is now the practice was tantamount to release large amounts of liquidity at the same time destroying the dollar's reputation, in this case, the dollar devaluation will definitely have to go.
Wang Zili: The U.S. government has its own difficulties. the U.S. government to use taxpayers money on the stock market, on the Bear Stearns bailout, the the actual situation, Lehman Brothers, nor the last, a financial institution in need of help, if the shot is likely the U.S. government also save the poor. Therefore, to save the already troubled financial firms and prevent further expansion of the financial crisis can not but consider the market of the road.
same time, it also seems to be ineffective for self-help Lehman Brothers, a warning. according to the insurance Wilson's argument, after the events of Bear Stearns, the Fed has to set up a special investment bank financing channels, such as allowing investment banks as commercial banks directly to the central bank loan. However, Lehman Brothers has not made use of this policy, but bent on trying to find a way out through the capital market, out of the woods, the results have lost the best time to save themselves.
the principle of free economy shaken the U.S.?
Zhiwu: Even the most thoroughly free market people will admit that the government has no role in the market era is long over.
in today's world, few consortia can kidnap the entire country, and even the interests of the global community. As a means of transportation and communication development, regional financial markets, commodity markets have been integrated at the national level. In this situation, it is easy to pass between enterprises the integration of a great scale, market penetration very wide, involving a small number of large consortia of public interest. Thus, the Government needs to provide market rules, property rights protection of public services. And, because too many kidnapped a few consortia of public interest, there the Critics say the crisis is the end of American financial capitalism. I think that the consequences of exaggerating the crisis. American financial capitalism, we will definitely continue, the impact of the crisis, the main impact is in terms of the amount of rather than qualitative change. the so-called American model of financial capitalism, including a lot of content, for example, rely on credit to promote consumption, and then rely on consumption to drive economic growth, which is associated with the current discussion. This mode certainly not the future change. This development pattern is not a U.S. exclusive, developed countries have adopted to varying degrees, such a model, in fact, China is also the pattern of investment-driven to consumption-driven model transformation.
United States After the 19th century, the basic growth is driven by consumption, the reason the industrial revolution brought major increases in production capacity. The reason why modern society, have to rely on consumer-driven economy because industrial technology, agricultural technology has been sufficiently improved, the human material production greater capacity and less physical effort that is able to meet the consumer demand. Therefore, the last restrict the production of human growth is not a lack of capacity, nor is it investment, but can not keep up consumer demand, growth in consumption is the bottleneck. all kinds of financial markets One of the objectives is through the development of housing mortgage loans, car loans, education loans, to ease as a result of people's incomes, inadequate consumption of non-uniform problems, and people through medical insurance, pension insurance, various types of funds and other financial varieties to arrange a good future possible need to reduce the youth, the pressure to save money during the prime of life, so as to promote consumption. In short, mortgage-related securities and other financial development, are around to save people from the liberation of the pressure, then release the consumer power. Not only the U.S. will not end this pattern, on the contrary, many countries including China, should be up to learn, otherwise, China and many other countries rely on the manufacturing and export markets.
then, the subprime crisis What would be the result? The first is the U.S. and global financial institutions to pay the price, China's foreign exchange reserves and commercial banks, Japan's banks have paid the price. followed by the U.S. economic and social impact, consumer credit and other credit severe contraction, not only U.S. banks and other financial institutions loans, investments will be more cautious, but also institutions and individuals in other countries to provide credit to the United States, capital will be substantially reduced. Thus, the U.S. consumer credit next year or two is difficult to grow. So, I think the U.S. financial crisis, consumer credit will be compressed, making the economy down in size, but will not be the end.
take over the , the U.S. budget deficit this year and next at least several hundred billion dollars more than the increase, coupled with the Iraq war expenses, the U.S. fiscal deficit will be rapid growth, need to send more government bonds. It would have been available to the public, the transfer of funds of enterprises into the hands of the government, private benefits of economic growth and compression of space, but also tend to devalue the dollar further against international investors into dollar-denominated assets will reduce the supply of dollars.
Therefore, in many ways, this far-reaching impact of financial crisis, the Great Depression of the 1930s has been the most serious against a wide range, but also very deep. However, the Great Depression of the 1930s did not fundamentally change the U.S. financial and economic model, but is strengthen it, the United States will come out through the corresponding longer follow the reform.
Can China an exception?
The crisis in the United States to international capital flows can cause what impact? in the irreversible trend of economic globalization against the backdrop of what developing countries need to take new measures to deter possible crises and the crisis in the United States being given the opportunity to ?
Wang Zili: In the increasingly uncertain international economic environment, financial crises in emerging economies, more than ever likely to be large. Summary of the Asian financial crisis a decade ago and this time the lessons of U.S. crisis , we find that the financial system and the importance of financial regulatory reform in a way more important than financial innovation. emerging economies must maintain a high degree of national economic sovereignty, economic growth, credit policy, exchange rate system reform, international capital flows regulatory and financial sector and opening up a whole Tongpan consider establishing sound money market, capital market, insurance market, combining, coordinating the development of mechanisms to maintain financial operations and the overall stability of financial markets.
we expect from the stability of the U.S. market also quite a long way to go, but the crucial adjustment in the year in November to February next year, is basically a foregone conclusion. the global market and Chinese market before the real trend will not clear in advance, so, analysis, observation is at this stage The main work.
present, the Chinese government not only pay attention to the stock market and property prices fell on the macroeconomic side effects, but also concerned about the constantly changing international economic environment, timely adjustment. as long as the response is correct, the domestic market will not chaos, but not real recession. At the same time, we must make great efforts to strengthen the management of hot money inflows, strengthening the acquisition of domestic assets by foreign management. hot money to withdraw from emerging markets now is temporary, and various emerging countries flowing into the outflow of hot money trends and were not identical. In this one year, the Chinese market is still the most likely international hot money flows in the direction of China's economic and financial impact may be relatively large, for which the relevant government departments should have been pre- sentence.
Financial risk monitoring whether a timely response to this event?
Wang: the transmission of the disaster will not only through the financial level, we can not say the yuan is not international, capital markets did not open China can avoid this crisis. crisis can come from trade level conduction. Our years of high growth is largely foreign trade and external demand, faster growth in foreign demand, led a large number of export-oriented industry, investment growth, such as textiles, in previous years investment growth in almost 50%, significantly higher than the average investment rate, investment growth rate of textile is now reduced to only a few percentage points at once, after deducting price factors, the actual negative growth.
Wang Zili: from the current situation to Look, China has introduced the risk monitoring and evaluation to further improve the financial risk early warning capabilities, and guard against systemic risk, but these are just some coordination mechanism through with other economic sector. In fact, to truly achieve the control of financial risks and maintain financial and social stability, the protection of national The purpose of the economic initiative, may also need to change the situation of the financial sub-sector regulators. unification of prevention, blocking of hot money into a long-term work in the full grasp of the premise of financial information on the frequency of hot money out of China's financial markets remain highly vigilance, establish an effective early warning system and closely monitor inflow of hot money, regulate foreign exchange capital inflows and foreign exchange management, focused on investigating illegal capital inflows and to strengthen international cooperation to prevent international short-term capital on the potential economic impact of financial security. < br> Zhiwu: U.S. financial crisis should not be used as the basis for strengthening the financial control of China. as representatives of the United States and China are the two extremes. in the United States, financial innovation can be said to be completely open, and out of the question to say , no problem can be completely free. and China is, without government approval, any innovation will not work. We must know that monitoring is reactive in nature, is already familiar with the matter and order, but innovation is by definition did not have before, is to create things that are not familiar with before, so, in essence, innovation should not be regulated, otherwise there is a logical contradiction. China is to become an innovation-oriented country, if the financial aspects of innovation is not significant, it Innovation can not be realized in other industries. Chinese-style regulation, is not able to improve the ability to resist risks. analogy, a person in the room and let him learn to swim, of course, do not worry he choked by water, but He also can not learn to swim, so his next into the water, he will drown.
United States to allow freedoms of financial innovation, of course, there will be some problems, this is not surprising. because the problem must be before we know Where should be regulated. In this sense, because the problems caused by the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States securities, the investment bank's control, must increase than before. Now so many of the investment bank needs to protect the federal government and the Fed, then the Fed and other government agencies, it is necessary to establish prevention, monitoring system, to avoid crises.
China's financial controls, there is no consideration of the surface, in fact, that price is in the use of other forms. Why In the international division of labor can only do we sell cheap labor manufacturing? this with financial underdevelopment, financial innovation can not have a free hand in a great relationship. no way the development of financial markets, domestic consumption growth will be difficult, to China economic and social is the price we must rely on exports to drive growth.
I think China should learn from this crisis, the lesson is: do not because the United States brought the issue of financial innovations, to think that we do not let go Financial innovation is a good thing. China must learn to swim, even to pay school fees, they should learn.
Why is that the central bank to use these two policy instruments? the move of China's real economy and financial markets how?
Wang Zili: My initiative to cut the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans to small and medium financial institutions and reduce the deposit reserve rate, sense means that a series of words, in order to maintain stable macro-economic growth should continue based.
China's reform and opening up for 30 years, 30 years China's economy maintained a rapid and steady growth, GDP average growth rate of 9.67%. However, this high-speed growth to a considerable extent based on high input, high pollution, the extensive land-intensive development path based on. This development is not sustainable, as the global economic slowdown and resources, environmental, social and other factor costs continue to rise China's economy is bound to face an unprecedented restructuring.
Zhiwu: the central bank's macro-control measures, on the whole, very correct. because inflation pressures over the past year has been to increase interest rates. But now oil prices have fallen 40%, the price of commodities relative to June, in July the highest point, also down a lot. As this time of financial crisis, global economic recession is expected to become stronger, the inflation caused by commodity pressure, should continue to ease in the coming months. It now appears that inflation in the next period of time should no longer be a priority. the impact of the crisis, the United States was a fundamental impact on private consumption, the future of China in 2012 because of the negative economic impact will certainly be a very big impact. So, to stimulate economic growth is the greater challenge facing the Government, the central bank lowered interest rates and deposit reserve ratio, is a preventive measure, very correct and timely.
stimulus solid economic growth, in addition to monetary policy, fiscal policy should also be adjusted, should give companies tax breaks, to low income residents in urban and rural residents in tax cuts to fiscal measures to stimulate consumption. The final policy change objective is to allow full enjoyment of economic growth in the income growth and consumption capacity, through the growth in demand, stimulating economic growth.
Wang: The two policies also are fine-tuning is only beginning to understand the problem, with policy, the adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio for small and medium banks should not only, but should be open to all banks, or loans to relax as much as possible and clearly .8 proposed increase in money supply growth rate of money supply in January had fallen to 16%, which is inappropriate, I think the whole money supply should grow 20% -22%. the current policy efforts or small, but than never.
the real economy is very bad now , due to the decline in exports, and many other factors, the industrial production rate of continuous decline, new investment has not increased. the distribution of gap reason, consumer demand and do not increase, and now to the production release of its peak, the excess capacity background, there is no external demand, domestic demand and not open, these are actually in the suppression of the growth of China's biomass industry, the biomass industry is facing the problem of insufficient demand.
stagflation comes in, we have two false positives: One is that inflation in the short term, you can use the cost of sacrificing some growth to the inflation pressure down; the second is when the economy has started to fall into the low growth, high inflation pattern, they also believe that the economy is overheating, and also anti-mm anti-double overheating, anti-inflation. These two false positive result over our monetary tightening, not only the stock market, real estate was a big impact, but would also have to make a faster rate of growth of the economy to fall prematurely. So now, real estate, stock market should be saved, but I hope next put off, first consider the investment, exports and industrial production pull up, do not let them continue to fall down, and material to keep the growth of industry, the only firm basis of asset prices.